Post #5: Time for Plan B

OK a lot has happened since my last baseball post. Sheffield was dumped to the Tigers for Sanchez, Whelan and Claggett, all 3 of which are good young arms. Sanchez according to Cashman projects to be a back of the bullpen type of guy, which could be very helpful in the near future. Whelan is talented with nasty stuff and is a year or so away from the Majors by most accounts. Clagget is a young unknown who randomly pitched over 60 innings with an under 1 era for single A. Needless to say I am extatic about this move. Cashman has been looking to stockpile young arms to replenish the system and he picked up 3 nice ones with someone he doesn't even have a spot for on the 07 team. The Tigers fill their middle of the lineup need with a nice bat in a particularly shallow market, although Shef is declining, can't play defense (he will be asked to DH - I wonder how long before he starts barking about Ordonez that he should be the one out in right?) and is coming off of major wrist surgery (even casual fans who have seen him take 1 AB should know how important his wrists are to his swing). There really is no downside to this package that Cashman clearly took over several others. I don't care about facing the Tigers in the playoffs and Sheff's vengence. Please. The Tigers with their backload of pitching of Miller, Minor, Verlander, Bonderman, Rogers, Maroth, Robertson off the top of my head are capable of starting could afford to trade the young arms. I think its a trade that works for both sides. I do not understand why the Tigers signed Sheffield to a 2 year extension of 14 million per, though. He will be 40 in 2009 are you kidding me? His OPS has been declining every year since 2003 that is way too much money for him as a 40 year old in 2009.
Then they traded Wright to the Orioles for Chris Britton, a 23 year old righthander with decent numbers in a tough park/division who has been healthy and not overworked. Thats a lot of checks on the checklist you have when evaluating relievers. Wright had a decent year for the Yankees, although Torre's inability to manage him (taking him out despite cruising along in the 5th and 6th innings) put stress on the bullpen and taxed Proctor and Villone into submission. I can write a whole article with proofs, etc, just about that but I will leave it for another time as I still haven't gotten to the meat and potatoes (Matsuzaka and rotation plan B) of this post. I don't understand why the Orioles want a mediocre starter who won't give you 200 innings even for $3 million. Don't tell me he's reunited with Mazone, he had that 1 good year with Atlanta not because of the damn pitching coach but because of the division and league and park. With Villone likely leaving in free agency (he's spent out: take the Type B pick for him and let some other team buy high on him) its important to rebuild the bullpen and Sanchez/Britton joining Proctor/Farnsworth and possibly Dotel as the bridge to Rivera is a good start. I don't think Cashman is done with the pen though. I can't wait to rock Jaret Wright 5 times a year.
The Red Sox put $51.1 down to talk with Matsuzaka. I am not happy about this. All indiciations are he will be a very solid pitcher and that 51.1 doesn't count to payroll/luxury tax. He will be the most expensive player in baseball at about 30 mil/year but that doesn't comfort me enough. I was fully expecting the Yankees to win the bid and slot him in at 1.5 as a complement to Wang who I also view as a 1.5 type pitcher in the rotation. The Sox can't trust Clement to be healthy, Lester is by all accounts out for '07 with cancer, and Wakefield is aging and on his last leg. Even with Matsuzaka they need Schilling to repeat his solid 06 season and for Beckett to improve drastically or else they will finish 3rd in the division yet again.
I can't blame the Yankees for not bidding that high, but people who are saying the Red Sox are stupid are wrong, imo. Yes they are clearly hypocrites as they cried poverty last year at the deadline (Theo saying he can't compete with the Yankees and take on Abreu's contract, also their whole "eye towards the future thing" with Crisp instead of a couple of million more for Damon last offseason). However that 51.1 will be partially recouped by opening Japanese market (a cut of Mats' merchandise sold in Japan, and advertising in Fenway a la Yomiuru newspaper ads in the Stadium). Besides, they needed a starter and he is by far the best one out there.

What can the Yankees do now? What is plan B? They resigned Moose for 2 years/22.5 million, (a nice short term deal I was advocating) which is arguably a hometown discount for a guy who is statistically better than Zito and Schmidt.
Mussina, Wang, Pavano and Johnson will make up next year's rotation. I will go through the options and come to 1 conclusion as to what should be done for the 5th and final spot:

• I'd rather not start the year with Hughes as he is unready for a 200 ip load yet and I don't want to have to keep his strict pitch count on the major league level like some advocate (imagine a 1-1 score scenerio in the 5th inning and Hughes has thrown 90 pitches but has to leave even though he's pitching well - his development should not cost the Yankees winning games and I fear it may).
• Karstens or Rasner are more than capable of handling the 5th spot for 2007, but is that rotation (Wang, Mussina, Pavano, Johnson, Rasner) good enough to win a world series? Probably not even if Pavano somehow turns his career around.
• As I see it there are 3 groups of FA starters left. Group 1 are the good starters who will come at a high price. This is Zito and Schmidt. Should we go out and sign Zito or Schmidt to long multi year deals? No. My rotation plan calls for, eventually, by 2008 opening day, 2 of the 5 spots to belong to the "future" (the future means from the group of Hughes, Clippard, Garcia, Betances, Rasner, White, Whelan, and anyone else being developed now in the minors or who will be acquired by Cashman in the near future). As it stands, Randy Johnson's spot will be vacant by 2008 and can be occupied by a future member. If we sign Zito or Schmidt to a long term deal then come 2008, Zito/Schmidt, Wang, Mussina and Pavano will only allow for 1 future spot. But what if Whelan and Hughes are Verlander and Jered Weaver of 2008? It would be a gluttonous, expensive, unacceptable logjam.
• Should we sign someone from group b of the free agent starters, namely the middle to back of the rotation types who will be cheap fliers? Wolf, Batista, Lilly and Meche primarily make up this group with hordes of others as well. But there will be the same problem as if Zito/Schmidt were signed, by 2008 there won't be room. This is more acceptable because most likely they will require 2 or 3 year deals as opposed to 4 or more, so by 2010 the spot will be reopened. But this isn't good enough for me. I want 40% of my 08 rotation to be non-Wang future types.
• The logical conclusion. The third free agent starter type: The last hurrah close to retirement reliable starter: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. As much as it hates me to say it (I hate both of them especially Clemens) signing one of them to a 1 year deal (they are both by all indications open to a 1 year deal) is the best option. They will fill out the rotation: Wang, Clemens, Mussina, Pavano and Johnson and make it a very formidable one for the regular season as well as short series in the playoffs. Talent isn't in question for either, neither is health for the most part, and both have not just handled but thrived in NY before. Then come 08, Clemens/Pettitte will be off the books. Johnson will be off the books. The 2 "future" starters can come up fully ready for a full season and start the initiation for the new dynasty (which as I tell everyone begins in 2009 with the new stadium and new manager.) And if only 1 future starter is ready, which is more realistic, like only Hughes for example, then we should sign a big time free agent next offseason and here is why: big time starters will be cheaper next year then ever, with Zambrano, Oswalt, Schilling, Smoltz and others all free agents. The Yankees in the offseason before 2008, thinking about 2009, will realize that both Mussina and Pavano are gone after that season and they will need to be replaced so why not now (ie 2008) when the market is cheap for big time starters.

That' s right I'm looking ahead to looking ahead to the next offseason. When Mussina and Pavano are entering their final years it will be smart to replace 1 of them for 2009 while allowing the other one to be replaced in-house by the aforementioned future group.

That's enough for now, you can leave comments, I hope I was clear with my ideas and reasons if not my explanation is lacking not the ideas themselves so leave comments and I will embellish if necessary on anything written in this post.

Did you know? According to ERA+ (which is park and league adjusted) Pedro Martinez is, BY FAR, the greatest pitcher who ever lived (at not giving up runs) with a 160 ERA+ and its not even close. Rounding out the top 5 are epic names like Lefty Grove 148, Walter Johnson and Dan Quisenberry and Hoyt Wilhelm and Joe Wood at 146, Ed Walsh at 145, and Roger Clemens and Johan Santana at 144.