Post #3: Mets offseason outlook
I find out the news, and I am filled with joy! I thought I was finally able to point out a flaw, an imperfection. You see, nothing brings me more joy than to ridicule the general managing of the hated New York Stems. However, lately there has been a problem. The man who once traded Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore for Bartolo Colon while GM of the hapless Expos could do no wrong as the GM of said Stems... until now! He just traded away Anna Benson and her baggage that is her husband to Baltimore for Jorge Julio months after a similar starter for reliever trade (Seo for Sanchez) and suddenly I am left staring at a gaping hole in the rotation. A hole, it would turn out, that even Jose Lima's large behind can't fill. Excellent, I exclaimed. In his haste to rid the team and city of this headache he traded away his starter even though, due to the Seo/Sanchez deal, he has now done 1 too many starter/reliever trades this season. What a glorious day.
But alas, in retrospect of that transaction, what's this in the fine print? Some minor leaguer included from Baltimore? Hmmm... But certainly he won't be great for the Mets, certainly he won't rise out of nowhere to turn this deal into a positive? Oh no! What if he is really solid down the stretch, a great pick up, and continues pitching well well (not a typo think about it) into the playoffs and even factoring into the future in the minds of Met fans? Ahh who I am I kidding.
That can't happen.
But wait.
It just did.
He was supposed to be a footnote. 90 innings, 6 wins, a 120 era+, a 1.133 whip and 1 gritty outstanding post season debut performance later (2.63 era in 3 starts, 10 hits in 13.2 innings and 13 k's, working around 11 walks) and the 25 year old righty will likely enter the 2007 season as the Mets #3 or maybe even #2 starter.
If the Mets wanted Zito on July 31st, all they had to do was say two magic words to Billy Beane. Those words are "Lastings Milledge." Beane has been quoted to say as much. Minaya thought he could win without Zito. For all intents and purposes, he was right. Zitolessness was not the reason the Mets lost this year. Beane thought he had a shot to win with Zito in 2006 rather than trade away Zito for some unready piece of the future. For all intents and purposes, he was right. Only 2 teams went further than the A's. Now he will settle for getting a draft pick (the Dodgers will sign Zito, I predict) and will proceed to rape at the draft, getting the next Zito/Swisher, etc. Along with signing the next bargain MVP candidate for $500,000 and you have the A's inexplicably competing next year despite a payroll less than what Arod will make in the next 2 and half years.
Now, Minaya is faced with an offseason filled with many possibilities, i.e many ways for him to screw up and make me happy. If he wants to keep me depressed, however, here is what he should do:
Floyd is gone and Endy Chavez is best used as a super-reserve, great 4th outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement/injury or day off speller, role/utility player. Green is your right fielder making 3.7 million from you (and 5.8 from Arizona) and a $2 million buyout on a $10 million dollar 2008 team option. You can look to trade him during the year if you want, if you either decided to keep Milledge and now want to give him another shot or you decide Chavez should start, or you get an outfielder back for Green, or one of zillions of other possibilities. Lo Duca will be back, and since he is naturally a great hitter with men on base I'd rather find a way to move him to 6th. I would look to acquire a big time outfielder to bat 2nd and move Lo Duca 6th. To do this I would try and trade Milledge and mid level prospects for Vernon Wells. Wells is basically a 1 year rental, and the Jays would be getting something HUGE for him, as they should, considering his ridiculously low price and ridiculously great talents. Another option is to make a super prospect package of Milledge and Pelfrey and maybe some mid-level prospects and send them off for Carl Crawford, who has 2 years remaining followed by 2 (relative bargain years) for 09 and '10. Statistically either would make an exceptional #2 hitter in this lineup, as they are both great with runners in scoring position and at driving in runs in general. They both have great speed (In fact Crawford is faster than Reyes, I have no proof for that, but my vicious animousity towards Reyes just typed that spontaneously) and play great defense, especially Wells who may be the best defensive outfielder in the game.
The remainder of their contracts look like this:
CARL CRAWFORD
07:$4M, 08:$5.25M, 09*:$8.25M club option ($2.5M buyout), 10:$10M club option
VERNON WELLS 07*:$5.6M
* = Eligible for Free Agency after that year
I'm not going to bother to go through their stats, just trust me that batting between Reyes and Beltran either could be an MVP candidate. This would be better than signing Lee or Soriano because you are getting the outfielder without spending a ton of money, instead you can use just a smaller portion of that money to sign a second baseman. Plus were you to get Lee or Soriano, who would bat 6th? Wright? That's not a good idea. Delgado? Soriano/Lee? Or maybe Lo Duca, but that means you have to move a stud power hitter to #2, I guess Beltran? I'm thinking as I type this, I guess that could work, but personally I don't think either of those 2 especially at their price tags and more importantly the required YEARS commitment on their contracts make them good fits. Carlos Lee for the next 5 years? Then what happens when Glavine is gone after next year and you want a good free agent pitcher who becomes available and willing to be a Met. How will you afford him. Rather, Wells/Crawford are short term solutions making the team one of the best in baseball for the next 2 years, and if they want to stay and a deal can be worked out great, if not then they will take that money and go after someone else in the future. There is no commitment to 4 years from now unlike Lee/Soriano. Oh and stay away from the devil. I mean Gary Sheffield. Seriously don't even go there.
Around the infield, Wright Reyes and Delgado are givens. Beltran in center is a given and I'm assuming for now Green is a given. Lo Duca is a given. This leaves 1 outfield spot (resolved above) and 2nd base (resolved right here):
For the second baseman, I'm not sure who's available besides Belliard and I'm too lazy to care, but Belliard would be a great fit batting 8th, or you can even keep Valentin who sucks at fielding. I would rather the better defense since the lineup is stacked as it is and I would just stick Anderson Hernandez there personally before starting Valentin. If you want to get really greedy, trade for Crawford/Wells and then sign Soriano to play 2nd base. This wouldn't be wise however, if you were interested in using that money sometime in the next several years to buy a big time free agent starter (ex: Oswalt after 2007), which, with the age/decline of Pedro/Glavine, the Mets really should be looking towards for the long term.
With the rotation, it appears more and more that the Mets have no interest in Zito especially if they are bringing Glavine back for $14 million. Glavine is definitely not worth 14 million - the question is, is their a cheaper way to fill that need? The answer is no. Bring Glavine back. With Maine, Bannister, and Perez, and Humber in the wings, you have 3 rotation spots filled right there. Those guys are all young, you need to bring back someone who you can rely on somewhat and Glavine is that person. He is only a 1 year commitment, and you can worry about replacing him with next year's deeper free agent pool. He will be motivated to get his 300th win and to win a championship in what will surely be his final year.
The bench: Franco, Woodward and Castro will be back, Valentin or Hernandez will play 2nd unless one is signed with the other coming off the bench as well.
Back to the rotation. As I see it the givens are Glavine Maine and Perez, especially after this post season. If Bannister is healthy he is almost guaranteed a spot as well. For the other spot (or 2), you have a few options. If you didn't trade Pelfrey, he can be a guy. As can resiging El Duque who was effective (hits < innings < strikeouts). Trachsel undoubtedly will be gone. Pedro will of course be returning to give a huge boost in the middle of the season. I don't care about his health, I don't care if he has to pitch lefty and underhand. He will make it work. He is a genius on the mound, he is the greatest pitcher in baseball history at not giving up runs. Victor Zambrano will be back unless he is traded or offered and declines arbitration, the same with Dave Williams. Alay Soler is signed for 2007. If Humber is ready and there is an open spot he will debut. A hodgepodge of all these starters will make appearances in 2007 and in all likelihood will form one of the better rotations in the NL.
Finally with the Pen will shake out like this: Wagner to close, and then: Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, Mota and Feliciano aren't eligible for free agency and so will be brought back at good prices or traded. I wouldn't be shocked if Hernandez is resigned for a 1 year deal with incentives. Oliver I expect to be gone. Heath Bell and Royce Ring will probably be factors as fillins throughout the year. A very deep and solid bullpen. Probably will be the best in the game.
Of course there are many other available bargains who can can either be starting pitchers or corner outfielders but I'm not going to mention them (at least not yet), but what I wrote is simply what I would look to do, were I Minaya with the goal of pissing off Simmy Cohen.
Alright I'll be back later in the week with the Yankees offseason outlook, something I am much more knowledgable in. Take care now, bye bye then.
Did you know? There are 2 players in the .295+ AVG, .395+ OBP, 500+ Doubles, 250+ Homers club not listed right here: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth. $10 to anyone who can name those 2. Leave your name and answer in the comments on facebook or blogspot.
But alas, in retrospect of that transaction, what's this in the fine print? Some minor leaguer included from Baltimore? Hmmm... But certainly he won't be great for the Mets, certainly he won't rise out of nowhere to turn this deal into a positive? Oh no! What if he is really solid down the stretch, a great pick up, and continues pitching well well (not a typo think about it) into the playoffs and even factoring into the future in the minds of Met fans? Ahh who I am I kidding.
That can't happen.
But wait.
It just did.
He was supposed to be a footnote. 90 innings, 6 wins, a 120 era+, a 1.133 whip and 1 gritty outstanding post season debut performance later (2.63 era in 3 starts, 10 hits in 13.2 innings and 13 k's, working around 11 walks) and the 25 year old righty will likely enter the 2007 season as the Mets #3 or maybe even #2 starter.
If the Mets wanted Zito on July 31st, all they had to do was say two magic words to Billy Beane. Those words are "Lastings Milledge." Beane has been quoted to say as much. Minaya thought he could win without Zito. For all intents and purposes, he was right. Zitolessness was not the reason the Mets lost this year. Beane thought he had a shot to win with Zito in 2006 rather than trade away Zito for some unready piece of the future. For all intents and purposes, he was right. Only 2 teams went further than the A's. Now he will settle for getting a draft pick (the Dodgers will sign Zito, I predict) and will proceed to rape at the draft, getting the next Zito/Swisher, etc. Along with signing the next bargain MVP candidate for $500,000 and you have the A's inexplicably competing next year despite a payroll less than what Arod will make in the next 2 and half years.
Now, Minaya is faced with an offseason filled with many possibilities, i.e many ways for him to screw up and make me happy. If he wants to keep me depressed, however, here is what he should do:
Floyd is gone and Endy Chavez is best used as a super-reserve, great 4th outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement/injury or day off speller, role/utility player. Green is your right fielder making 3.7 million from you (and 5.8 from Arizona) and a $2 million buyout on a $10 million dollar 2008 team option. You can look to trade him during the year if you want, if you either decided to keep Milledge and now want to give him another shot or you decide Chavez should start, or you get an outfielder back for Green, or one of zillions of other possibilities. Lo Duca will be back, and since he is naturally a great hitter with men on base I'd rather find a way to move him to 6th. I would look to acquire a big time outfielder to bat 2nd and move Lo Duca 6th. To do this I would try and trade Milledge and mid level prospects for Vernon Wells. Wells is basically a 1 year rental, and the Jays would be getting something HUGE for him, as they should, considering his ridiculously low price and ridiculously great talents. Another option is to make a super prospect package of Milledge and Pelfrey and maybe some mid-level prospects and send them off for Carl Crawford, who has 2 years remaining followed by 2 (relative bargain years) for 09 and '10. Statistically either would make an exceptional #2 hitter in this lineup, as they are both great with runners in scoring position and at driving in runs in general. They both have great speed (In fact Crawford is faster than Reyes, I have no proof for that, but my vicious animousity towards Reyes just typed that spontaneously) and play great defense, especially Wells who may be the best defensive outfielder in the game.
The remainder of their contracts look like this:
CARL CRAWFORD
07:$4M, 08:$5.25M, 09*:$8.25M club option ($2.5M buyout), 10:$10M club option
VERNON WELLS 07*:$5.6M
* = Eligible for Free Agency after that year
I'm not going to bother to go through their stats, just trust me that batting between Reyes and Beltran either could be an MVP candidate. This would be better than signing Lee or Soriano because you are getting the outfielder without spending a ton of money, instead you can use just a smaller portion of that money to sign a second baseman. Plus were you to get Lee or Soriano, who would bat 6th? Wright? That's not a good idea. Delgado? Soriano/Lee? Or maybe Lo Duca, but that means you have to move a stud power hitter to #2, I guess Beltran? I'm thinking as I type this, I guess that could work, but personally I don't think either of those 2 especially at their price tags and more importantly the required YEARS commitment on their contracts make them good fits. Carlos Lee for the next 5 years? Then what happens when Glavine is gone after next year and you want a good free agent pitcher who becomes available and willing to be a Met. How will you afford him. Rather, Wells/Crawford are short term solutions making the team one of the best in baseball for the next 2 years, and if they want to stay and a deal can be worked out great, if not then they will take that money and go after someone else in the future. There is no commitment to 4 years from now unlike Lee/Soriano. Oh and stay away from the devil. I mean Gary Sheffield. Seriously don't even go there.
Around the infield, Wright Reyes and Delgado are givens. Beltran in center is a given and I'm assuming for now Green is a given. Lo Duca is a given. This leaves 1 outfield spot (resolved above) and 2nd base (resolved right here):
For the second baseman, I'm not sure who's available besides Belliard and I'm too lazy to care, but Belliard would be a great fit batting 8th, or you can even keep Valentin who sucks at fielding. I would rather the better defense since the lineup is stacked as it is and I would just stick Anderson Hernandez there personally before starting Valentin. If you want to get really greedy, trade for Crawford/Wells and then sign Soriano to play 2nd base. This wouldn't be wise however, if you were interested in using that money sometime in the next several years to buy a big time free agent starter (ex: Oswalt after 2007), which, with the age/decline of Pedro/Glavine, the Mets really should be looking towards for the long term.
With the rotation, it appears more and more that the Mets have no interest in Zito especially if they are bringing Glavine back for $14 million. Glavine is definitely not worth 14 million - the question is, is their a cheaper way to fill that need? The answer is no. Bring Glavine back. With Maine, Bannister, and Perez, and Humber in the wings, you have 3 rotation spots filled right there. Those guys are all young, you need to bring back someone who you can rely on somewhat and Glavine is that person. He is only a 1 year commitment, and you can worry about replacing him with next year's deeper free agent pool. He will be motivated to get his 300th win and to win a championship in what will surely be his final year.
The bench: Franco, Woodward and Castro will be back, Valentin or Hernandez will play 2nd unless one is signed with the other coming off the bench as well.
Back to the rotation. As I see it the givens are Glavine Maine and Perez, especially after this post season. If Bannister is healthy he is almost guaranteed a spot as well. For the other spot (or 2), you have a few options. If you didn't trade Pelfrey, he can be a guy. As can resiging El Duque who was effective (hits < innings < strikeouts). Trachsel undoubtedly will be gone. Pedro will of course be returning to give a huge boost in the middle of the season. I don't care about his health, I don't care if he has to pitch lefty and underhand. He will make it work. He is a genius on the mound, he is the greatest pitcher in baseball history at not giving up runs. Victor Zambrano will be back unless he is traded or offered and declines arbitration, the same with Dave Williams. Alay Soler is signed for 2007. If Humber is ready and there is an open spot he will debut. A hodgepodge of all these starters will make appearances in 2007 and in all likelihood will form one of the better rotations in the NL.
Finally with the Pen will shake out like this: Wagner to close, and then: Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, Mota and Feliciano aren't eligible for free agency and so will be brought back at good prices or traded. I wouldn't be shocked if Hernandez is resigned for a 1 year deal with incentives. Oliver I expect to be gone. Heath Bell and Royce Ring will probably be factors as fillins throughout the year. A very deep and solid bullpen. Probably will be the best in the game.
Of course there are many other available bargains who can can either be starting pitchers or corner outfielders but I'm not going to mention them (at least not yet), but what I wrote is simply what I would look to do, were I Minaya with the goal of pissing off Simmy Cohen.
Alright I'll be back later in the week with the Yankees offseason outlook, something I am much more knowledgable in. Take care now, bye bye then.
Did you know? There are 2 players in the .295+ AVG, .395+ OBP, 500+ Doubles, 250+ Homers club not listed right here: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth. $10 to anyone who can name those 2. Leave your name and answer in the comments on facebook or blogspot.
posted by Simmy Cohen at 1:04 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home